RECESSION… THE BIG BET!

Happy New Year everyone it’s time to start sailing the seas of this 2023 which promises to be really intense from all points of view.

Will there be the most heralded recession in history? And who cares, data now have little value in a system where everything is “fixed”.

The war will end in tarallucci and wine, Taiwan will become the 51st American state, Europe will take command of the world economy, debt will be shared, markets will rise, cryptocurrencies will fly, bonds will become waste paper, firelighters for fireplaces.

Making short-term forecasts in a manipulated world is suicidal, making forecasts where econophysics rules and money is for fools.

But in the medium and long term, there is no escape, then manipulate, defraud, fix whatever you want, but sooner or later, reality presents the bill.

A few years ago, someone wrote that Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager, protagonist of the film “The Big Short”, is wrong this time, he has not understood what is actually happening, he is misinterpreting the current financial dynamics.

All calculated, the central banks know what they are doing, everything under control, everything will go up forever.

Burry had the audacity to declare that in his heart he thought this crisis would change something, like yours truly, that in reality nothing has changed and that everything is worse than before, with central banks whose monetary policy damages households and small and medium enterprises, the real economy, in short.

No one has paid the bill, they are all out there on the loose, bankers, auditors, controllers, all people who in reality should have ended up in jail and who in reality have set up a worse theater than before.

If we are right, people will lose their homes, their jobs, their life savings, Rickert said in the film, they will lose their pensions, for banks, people are just numbers.

What the heck, why be a pessimist among people who create money out of thin air, fatten like a pig in their greed and leave a few drops trickling down the gullible who still believe they can pursue the dream of life, no matter if it’s stock or cryptocurrencies.

In these first days of 2023, good news from the energy front, with oil and gas in free fall, certainly not because of the EU’s ridiculous hat, but because CINEMATICALLY they had to get where they are.

The dollar has regained strength, yields have returned to falling even significantly in America, after a rebound and so they will continue for the first part of 2023.

We will talk about it together shortly in OUTLOOK 2023 “The final cut.”

For the second time in over 20 months, the manufacturing sector in America drops below the threshold of 50 points…

While there are still some gullible people who are terrified of inflation, prices are literally collapsing!

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But of course who looks at the prices when they collapse, all there with their noses turned up to look at inflation in the rear view mirror.

That doesn’t mean the game is over, but we’ll talk about that in “The final cut.” in depth!

Of course, these data will not change the Fed’s monetary policy…

Participants noted that, because monetary policy has worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing of financial conditions, especially if driven by a public misperception of the Committee’s reaction function, would complicate the Committee’s efforts. Committee to Restore Price Stability.

They are terrified that the market won’t take them seriously anymore!

The bond vigilantes have long since stopped believing in the Fed, the market is starting to discount more rate cuts to come, no matter what the dots expressing the continuous hikes by the US central bank indicate.

Not only are producer prices collapsing in the manufacturing sector, but for the last 4 months rent prices have also fallen, which the Fed is watching with apprehension…

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Our national index fell 0.8% in December, marking the fourth consecutive month-over-month decline. The timing of this cooling in the rental market is consistent with the typical seasonal trend, but its magnitude has been considerably sharper than seen in the past. This suggests that the recent trend in declining rents reflects a broader change in market conditions beyond just seasonality. (Apartment List)

No, no one else lets you read these little things in Italy, everyone there talking about nothing and commenting on data that is thrown onto the markets every day without any analysis.

Excluding the pandemic, production, orders and growth are at levels not seen since 2009.

And obviously some argue that there will be no recession, because the suckers continue to buy all the data that skilled manipulators “fix” to keep afloat confidence.

Many companies, not just tech companies like Amazon and company, announce layoffs galore, but obviously the people are not yet ready to know the truth…

We know that ADP does not make headlines, its data leave the time they find, the revisions are always and often enormous.

Today the data on the BLS labor market will be released, other data that are literally invented, put there to move some psychopath’s money, interviews and obsolete, useless, unreliable models.

Any data can come out, it doesn’t matter to us, indeed we are rooting for a beautiful data, since it will serve to further strengthen the dollar that has finished its pause.

2022 was a bet for us, the dollar broke through parity after years of receiving insults from the various trolls on duty, 2023 will be a certainty!

Appointment in the next few days with “The final cut” OUTLOOK 2023!

What if 2023 was like 2008? I can’t wait to finish OUTLOOK 2023 “The final cut” dedicated to all those who have consistently and generously supported our journey.

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The manuscripts since the beginning of the year have been a perfect compass after a period of crisis, but as always, the truth is the daughter of time.

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At this address our PUNTOSELLA will update his personal monthly column in the comments…

PUNTOSELLA KINEMATICS ANGLE

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RECESSION… THE BIG BET! – icebergfinance